Vegas Play Recaps
If you are not a subscriber, check in every week and see how we're doing. Recaps review the weekly best bets, sometimes including comments or anecdotes you might find useful. Statistical summaries show all the predictions, lines, and outcomes in tabular format, and give the mean prediction error, mean point spread error, and mean-square error (calling all nerds). The smaller the error, the better. The Entropy predictions are typically among the best in the world on mean error and mean squared error, often besting the Vegas line.
For football there are three types of best bets for sides: early leans, Vegas Plays, and half-unit plays. Results for each are tracked separately, as they can be very distinct entities. For example, a favorite might be an early lean with a line of -8, but late in the week it might be -6. The early lean was the team -8, and without knowing a priori which way the line would move, some clients might have taken the -8 play, while others may have waited and ended up on the -6 play. The result could end up making the early lean as a loser, and the Vegas Play a winner, even though both were on the same team. The easiest way to account for such issues is to track the groups separately.
December 27th update: We netted about another 3.5 units on the NFL for Week 16, putting clients above 20 units of profit for the season.
December 20, 2012, the football season to date: Plays recommended to clients are well ahead in all areas, except college football totals.
College football totals never gained traction early in the year, and I suggested laying off until we had a solid winning week. Week 10 was that winning week, and the totals have won each week since then. So, despite the 87-88 record, clients may be ahead on CFB totals.
Not including NCAA totals, we are +16.9 units for the year.
I also had some incredibly profitable results on FCS/1AA totals. Those bets are not available through many sports books, so I do not include those in the "official" results tallies. But the success should be noted...
Recaps:
College Football
NFL
NCAA basketball
NBA
Statistical summaries:
CFB Bowls
CFB Week 14
CFB Week 13
CFB Week 12
CFB Week 11
CFB Week 10
CFB Week 9
CFB Week 8
CFB Week 7
CFB Week 6
CFB Week 5
CFB Week 4
CFB Week 3
CFB Week 2
CFB Week 1
NFL Week 19
NFL Week 18
NFL Week 17
NFL Week 16
NFL Week 15 - Wow, check out the totals.
NFL Week 14
NFL Week 13
NFL Week 12
NFL Week 11
NFL Week 10
NFL Week 9
NFL Week 8
NFL Week 7
NFL Week 6 - Wow, check out the totals.
NFL Week 5 - Wow, check out the totals.
NFL Week 4
NFL Week 3
NFL Week 2
NFL Week 1