2011 college football, Bowl Season Entropy prediction results: pmar = Entropy prediction line = Las Vegas point spread rs = actual result error = prediction error errLV = point spread prediction error STR = straight-up prediction result ATS = prediction result against the spread favorite pmar line rs underdog error errLV STR ATS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Temple 10.52 6.5 22 Wyoming 11.48 15.50 W W Utah State 1.50 2.5 -1 Ohio 2.50 3.50 L W San Diego State 5.52 5.0 -2 Louisiana-Lafayette 7.52 7.00 L L Florida International 5.21 4.0 -10 Marshall 15.21 14.00 L L T.C.U. 11.55 9.0 7 Louisiana Tech 4.55 2.00 W L Boise State 12.47 14.0 32 Arizona State 19.53 18.00 W L Southern Miss 6.85 8.0 7 Nevada 0.15 1.00 W W Missouri 6.06 5.0 17 North Carolina 10.94 12.00 W W Purdue -1.37 2.5 5 Western Michigan 6.37 2.50 L L North Carolina State 0.26 2.5 7 Louisville 6.74 4.50 W L Toledo 5.95 3.0 1 Air Force 4.95 2.00 W L Texas 2.05 3.5 11 California 8.95 7.50 W L Florida State 2.54 3.5 4 Notre Dame 1.46 0.50 W L Baylor 11.35 9.5 11 Washington 0.35 1.50 W W Tulsa 1.60 1.0 -3 B.Y.U. 4.60 4.00 L L Rutgers 0.84 1.0 14 Iowa State 13.16 13.00 W L Mississippi State 9.97 6.5 6 Wake Forest 3.97 0.50 W L Oklahoma 20.94 13.5 17 Iowa 3.94 3.50 W W Texas A&M 17.53 9.5 11 Northwestern 6.53 1.50 W W Georgia Tech -0.37 2.0 -3 Utah 2.63 5.00 W W Illinois 1.11 2.5 6 UCLA 4.89 3.50 W L Vanderbilt 2.15 1.5 -7 Cincinnati 9.15 8.50 L L Auburn 3.90 3.0 19 Virginia 15.10 16.00 W W Houston 10.60 7.0 16 Penn State 5.40 9.00 W W Georgia 0.14 3.0 -3 Michigan State 3.14 6.00 L W South Carolina 2.08 2.5 17 Nebraska 14.92 14.50 W L Florida 2.81 2.0 7 Ohio State 4.19 5.00 W W Oregon 8.86 6.0 7 Wisconsin 1.86 1.00 W W Oklahoma State 8.13 4.0 3 Stanford 5.13 1.00 W L Michigan 4.42 3.0 3 Virginia Tech 1.42 0.00 W P Clemson 2.47 3.0 -37 West Virginia 39.47 40.00 L W Arkansas 10.15 9.0 13 Kansas State 2.85 4.00 W W Pittsburgh 8.81 3.5 -22 S.M.U. 30.81 25.50 L L Arkansas State -1.30 1.5 -18 Northern Illinois 16.70 19.50 W W Alabama -4.19 1.0 21 L.S.U. 25.19 20.00 L L mean prediction error = 9.021 mean square error = 156.889 mean Las Vegas error = 8.357 mean square LV error = 143.593 straight: 25- 10 , 0.7143 ATS W-L-P: 16- 18- 1, 0.4706 -- Totals: home ptot line rs road error errLV ATS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wyoming 47.03 48.5 52 Temple 4.97 3.50 L Ohio 57.89 57.5 47 Utah State 10.89 10.50 L Louisiana-Lafayette 59.93 58.5 62 San Diego State 2.07 3.50 W Marshall 46.49 48.5 30 Florida International 16.49 18.50 W T.C.U. 56.67 55.5 55 Louisiana Tech 1.67 0.50 L Boise State 62.74 66.0 80 Arizona State 17.26 14.00 L Southern Miss 57.99 62.5 41 Nevada 16.99 21.50 W Missouri 50.66 52.5 65 North Carolina 14.34 12.50 L Purdue 58.25 60.0 69 Western Michigan 10.75 9.00 L North Carolina State 44.40 44.5 55 Louisville 10.60 10.50 L Air Force 71.77 71.0 83 Toledo 11.23 12.00 W Texas 50.54 47.5 31 California 19.54 16.50 L Florida State 45.89 46.0 32 Notre Dame 13.89 14.00 W Baylor 82.09 79.0 123 Washington 40.91 44.00 W B.Y.U. 57.48 56.5 45 Tulsa 12.48 11.50 L Iowa State 43.29 44.5 40 Rutgers 3.29 4.50 W Mississippi State 46.30 48.0 40 Wake Forest 6.30 8.00 W Oklahoma 55.45 58.0 45 Iowa 10.45 13.00 W Texas A&M 62.75 70.0 55 Northwestern 7.75 15.00 W Georgia Tech 50.02 50.0 57 Utah 6.98 7.00 W Illinois 46.48 47.0 34 UCLA 12.48 13.00 W Vanderbilt 49.43 49.0 55 Cincinnati 5.57 6.00 W Auburn 46.21 49.0 67 Virginia 20.79 18.00 L Houston 54.44 56.5 44 Penn State 10.44 12.50 W Georgia 49.14 50.5 63 Michigan State 13.86 12.50 L South Carolina 46.59 46.0 43 Nebraska 3.59 3.00 L Florida 41.58 44.0 41 Ohio State 0.58 3.00 W Oregon 71.29 71.5 83 Wisconsin 11.71 11.50 L Oklahoma State 72.55 74.0 79 Stanford 6.45 5.00 L Virginia Tech 45.48 51.0 43 Michigan 2.48 8.00 W Clemson 64.30 61.0 103 West Virginia 38.70 42.00 W Arkansas 58.29 65.0 45 Kansas State 13.29 20.00 W Pittsburgh 45.29 47.0 34 S.M.U. 11.29 13.00 W Northern Illinois 62.27 63.0 58 Arkansas State 4.27 5.00 W L.S.U. 42.86 40.0 21 Alabama 21.86 19.00 L mean prediction error = 11.892 mean square error = 218.777 mean Las Vegas error = 12.600 mean square LV error = 242.586 ATS W-L-P: 20- 15- 0, 0.5714