Sports Betting Strategy
If I’m being honest…
I don’t sports bet to win money.
I sports bet to add stakes. It lets me back the team I want to back, and tell people about it when they win. It lets me root for a team I otherwise wouldn’t care about. It allows me to compete.
So I’m playing to win. And yeah, I lied… I’m also playing to win money. It’s just not the only reason I’m playing.
This guide is going to walk you through my research on the most successful sports betting tips I’ve found, so we can maximize our profits.
That’s why we’re here… make money while watching sports. If nothing else, winning allows us to keep playing.
We’re going to cover:
- how much you can expect to win sports betting (it won’t sound like a lot)
- bankroll management (need this so you can keep playing)
- our general sports betting tips
- the one can’t lose sports betting strategy (can’t make a lot on this, but it works)
- 7 sports betting models/theories
- what to avoid
- most profitable sports bets by sport (coming soon)
Expectations when sports betting
I’m going to start by being a Debbie Downer…
You’re not going to win a lot.
Sharp bettors know this, and it’s one edge they have. If you don’t have an idea of how much you need to win, you’ll either run out of bankroll too quickly or get overconfident and place too big of bets.
Let’s start by realizing how often the professional betters success.
What percentage of bets to professional sports bettors win?
The best sports bettors in the world win about 55% of the time. The range over the long term is usually 53-55%.
So what about your friend who claims they win 70% of their bets? There are a few possibilities:
- He’s bad at math.
- He hasn’t bet that much. A monkey could choose who’s going to win by pointing at a screen and easily will 2 of its first 3 bets and be “better” than professional gamblers.
- He’s lying.
- He’s lucky for now (see point #2)
The worst part of this friend is now that he’s bragging about his win percentage, he thinks he has the system figured it. His bets increase, and this is probably right around when he starts to go on a losing streak.
What percent of sports bets do you have to win to break even?
You need to win 52.4% of your sports bets to break even. This assumes you’re playing 50/50 odds bets like betting the spread of a game.
The reason you have to win more than 50% is because of the sports app or casino’s cut. Most 50/50 sports bets you see will have odds of -110. This means even though you have a 50% chance to win or lose, you have to bet $11 to win $10. That lost dollar adds up over time.
So how much can we expect to win betting on sports?
Good question. We now know a few things we can expect when betting on sports:
- The less we bet the more luck can influence how much we win or lose
- The more we bet the more likely statistics and skills influence how much we win or lose.
- We need to win 52.4% of the time to get our money back.
- Most professionals win around 53-55% of their bets.
The bad news of this is it means you have to place a lot of bets to win. If you’re winning 55% of your bets, it would take gambling about $10,000 a week to earn enough betting income to replace a $15/hr job. The good news is you aren’t really risking $10,000. A monkey betting $10,000 a week would lose $500 a week. The monkey would have a much less than 1% chance (more like 1 in 1,000) to lose more than $1,500.
Note: if you’re betting smaller amounts, you can profit much more as a percentage because of strategies like our zero-risk strategy. the reason it doesn’t have as big of an impact for bigger bettors is the winning of this strategy is capped (so a smaller percentage if you’re making more bets).
Best Bankroll Management Strategy
Bankroll is how much money you have set aside to gamble. It’s important not to have a higher bankroll than you’re comfortable losing. But if you’re gambling right, 99% of the time you won’t come close to losing all this money (and hopefully, you’re increasing it with time!).
Most sharps bet around 1-2% maximum on any given bet. This means if you have $1,000 to gamble, you’d bet $10-20. This makes it very unlikely you can get caught with no money to continue.
But you’re not a pro, and I think this means you can actually be a little more risky (wth a few warnings). Pros have huge bankrolls, often funded by other people. So 1% is still a massive bet.
I think if you want a simple system, betting 5% of your bankroll makes it very unlikely you will ever run out. That means $50 bets if you have $1,000. But there is one more important principle: you don’t do super risky bets. If you’re betting 50/50 bets (like against the spread bets), your chances of
I prefer a little more flexible system. If it’s a less risky bet (think ATS bets that around 50/50 odds), I’m comfortable betting 5% of the bankroll. You have extreme chances of running out of money with $50 bets (if you have a 1,000). However, if you’re betting parlays or longshot bets, the math changes quickly. If you’re making +500 odd bets, you could win big and improve your bankroll, but there’s also a good chance you drop to 0.
I like a flexible system. This system I will bet 5% of my bankroll on close to even odds bets. If I want to try a riskier bet, I’ll cap it at 1%. I also update my bankroll before each bet. In other words, if I lose early, my bets start getting smaller, if I win early, my bets get bigger.
Why it’s so important not to lose money. You might think, “Well, if I run out of money, I”ll just refill my account. I have the money.” This is how bad sports gamblers are formed. There’s no system here, so you get “sucked in” and can go down a spiral of not keep track of how much your gambling habits costing you. It can also just make you a sloppy sports bettor. Rules are important for sports betting–to win and to make sure it’s not a bad habit.
Sports Betting Tips and Fundamentals
These aren’t sports betting models or systems, but general tips to keep in mind when sports betting. Think of it as the fundamentals. We’ll cover more specific tips later.
Tip #1: You don’t have a number advantage over Vegas.
There are many genius mathematicians and programmers who create computer models to predict sports scores. Not surprisingly, they can be extremely accurate. The problem is that Vegas is too. Vegas’ whole game is to create spreads for games, so you know they have no problem spending money on smart people to help them out.
They also have the resources to include experts and insiders who give them information that the models crunching numbers can’t. I’ve written on this before, but this human edge can make all the difference.
This doesn’t mean I ignore my favorite sports prediction models. If multiple are pointing in a different direction than Vegas, it’s worth paying attention to. But it’s also worth considering that Vegas is including valuable information that the other models aren’t (one example would be a recent injury).
Tip #2: Tip-toe into your bets (while still making money)
This is a bankroll strategy. Don’t go too hard too early because losses can sneak up on you. The good news is while you’re figuring out your strategy, there are ways to make money.
There are two general ways you can make money with sports betting: gambling arbitrage and being better than average.
When you’re getting started out, gambling arbitrage works best. It doesn’t take much money, and you don’t risk much money
As you learn your style and start becoming a better than average gambler, you need to place a lot of bets.
So my advice for gamblers is to tip-toe into their bets…
- Find out what strategies, gambling models, and systems work best for you.
- You’ll probably lose some money doing this, so make small bets.
- While you’re figuring out what works best for you, you can make money using the zero-risk strategies
You’ll repeat this process with small bets until you find what’s working for you. Once you start getting a good feel for what that is, you can make higher bets.
Tip #3: Get narrow on your bets
This builds on tips #1 and #2.
Vegas is great at predicting lines, so your edge will come from the more human side.
The more narrow you get on your bets, the more you can watch and get a feel for when Vegas might be off.
What do a I mean by narrow? In order from least to most narrow: gambling on all sports, gambling on a specific sport, gambling on a specific type of bet within a sport (eg over/under vs spread), gambling on a specific conference, gambling on a specific team.
I think the more narrow you can get, the more you’ll start to notice when things might be different the sports predictors are picking.
Tip #4: Shop for the best odds
Sportsbooks rarely are too far apart in their lines, but it doesn’t take much to make a difference.
I remember one of my first times sports gambling was a trip to Vegas for March Madness, and I remember toward the end of the first day thinking how exciting it was that so many games were hovering right around the Vegas line in the last 2 minutes.
So what if you got to take the line and give yourself 0.5 to 1 point in your favor every bet? It could make the difference in a good vs bad day.
So this tip is pretty easy to execute: Pick the team or over/under you want to bet on, and then do a quick scan of your Sportsbooks (helps to have at least 3) and see who’s giving you the best odds.
Tip #5: Go with your gut… sometimes
A lot of people will tell you to avoid your emotions when sports betting, but I disagree.
It’s important to look at the data: how have the teams performed, what are the sports models predicting, who’s injured, etc.
But I think the edge we get over Vegas, especially the more we bet narrow (see above), sometimes we get feels that are right.
Humans are able to pick up on things we sometimes can describe. I’m not saying your psychic, so go easy here, but I still think it’s worth listening to your gut. It may be the best edge we have.
Sports Betting Strategies
Here are a few sports betting models that can pay off for you. You can decide what suits you best on a given week.
Doubling your bet after each loss
This doubling up your bet system works like this:
- Place a small bet
- If you win, place another small bet.
- If you lose, double your previous bet
You can see how this works. If you bet $5 and win, great. But if you lose? You place a $10 bet. If you lose that? You place a $20 bet.
This works because you’re eventually going to win, and when you do, your bet is big enough to make up for the previous losses.
This is one of my favorite systems. It’s easiest to stick to point spread bets and over-under bets since they have about 50/50 odds that you’ll need to make this strategy simple.
What is the risk?
Losing much more money than you planned if you get very unlucky.
Let’s say you’re a $10-bet kind of guy. So you decide to start this strategy at $5. You’re getting super unlucky and lose 9 times in a row. It’s possible, and your next bet will $2,560. And, you will have already spent $2,555 on losing bets. A lot for a $10-bet guy.
What are the odds of that happening? About 1 and 1,000. So unlikely but possible. Key takeaway: make sure you have enough bankroll for this strategy.
Piggybacking on the sharps
Sometimes the bets of sharps leak out. But there are other ways to get an idea of who the experts are betting on.
One is you can look at where most of the bets are. If the line starts moving away from that bet, the sharps are likely on the side of the line movement. Another way you can look is if there’s a big difference in the handle (how much money) is on one side vs how many bets are on it. If there are less bets but big money, that likely means professional bettors are on the side with more money.
You have to be a little careful here. Sometimes the popular bet can move the line (so just a line moving in a direction doesn’t mean it’s “smart money”).
It’s also important to remember that sports gambling is a game of inches. So sharps may like a line, but once it’s moved a point or two causing you to notice, they may not like what you’re getting it at.
So not foolproof, but I find this information very valuable when making bets. You can use it for the opposite too–if you like a bet and find out the sharps are going against you, you might stay away or hedge it (of course, if you love the bet and followed all of our gambling tips, you might want to stick with it).
Reverting to the mean
Sometimes teams or players go through slumps. They might look really bad, and the common fan has a recency bias.
That means they expect this recent game is who the team is now. Sometimes that’s true. Maybe something has changed with the team, or they aren’t who we thought they were.
But often times it’s just a bad game, and you can win some money by being a little more level-headed. Try to zoom out to the big picture. Was there a reason they lost that predicts how they’ll play down the road (an injury being a good example), or was it just an off night?
If it was an off night, consider taking the bet in favor of the team that just played poorly. Sharps often do this, where the public tends to take recent winners.
Hedging the right bet
Sometimes it’s good to take risk off the table. Vegas does this all the time by moving line purely to limit their maximum loss (even if they think the move will make them more likely to lose).
There a few ways to do this. One we discuss in our zero-risk strategy.
Here’s how you perform a hedge:
- Place a bet
- If the bet starts going in your favor, you can place a bet again your original bet
This lets you limit how much you’ll lose, but it also caps how much you can win.
I don’t like this strategy for smaller, less risky bets because the cost of reducing the risk probably isn’t worth losing less. An example would be you bet $10 on the Chicago Bulls to beat the LA Lakers with even odds (you’ll win $20). The Lakers go up 18-2 early, and now the Lakers have +150 odds, so you place a $5 bet on the Lakers that would pay $7.50.
This is how you changed your bet. With the original bet, if the Bulls win you profit $10, and if they lost, you lost $10. With the hedged bet, you win $5 with a Bulls win, and if they lose, you lose $7.50. The only time I consider hedging in a small bet like this is if you see something you really don’t like (not just the Lakers going on a run). A key player on the Bulls is injured or the Lakers are exploiting something you don’t think the Bulls can react to.
I like hedging big bets. Let’s say you bet $10 on Butler to win the national championship the NCAA tournament before the March Madness started and it pays $5,000. Butler miraculously makes the final game. They’re playing Villanova who’s the favorite with -220 odds. You could place a $100 bet in Villanova. If Butler wins, you still profit $4,890. A little less than before, but if Villanova wins like they’re supposed to, you don’t come out empty handed–you profit $35.45 that you could use on your next long-shot bet.
Middling your bet to increase payouts
Middling is another form of hedging. The difference with middling is you’re increasing you take a little off your winnings, but the benefit is you increase your chance of winning and get an exciting option for a “double” win.
The way middling plays out is let’s say Alabama is playing Texas in college football. Alabama is the favorite with a -21 spread. You bet on Alabama ATS, so the start of the game you’re hoping Alabama wins by more than 21. Lucky for you, Alabama goes up by two touchdowns early, and now the line has moved to Alabama -28. This time you decide to take Texas +28.
So what are you rooting for? The middle. If Alabama wins by 22-27, you win the Alabama -21 bet and the Texas +28 bet. Big payday.
So here’s how a common middling would work (let’s assume a $100 original bet and a $50 middle bet with even odds):
- Alabama wins by between 22-27 (stays close to the line), you profit $150–$50 more than you have without middling
- Alabama easily covers your original bet (wins by 29 or more), you profit $50–but you have profited $100 if you didn’t middle
- If the game swings the other way, and Texas wins or loses by less than 20, you lose $50 in profit, but you have lost $100 without middling
You can see how middling allows you an exciting chance to boost your winnings, while decreasing the downside. It’s a good strategy if you think the game won’t continue it’s current trajectory that went in your favor.
Can’t lose sports betting strategy
“If it sounds too good to be true, it’s probably is.”
Well, not in this case.
There is free money when it comes to sports betting. But it makes sense for you to be skeptical, so it helps to know why.
Online sportsbooks is still a new thing. And these companies are competing to get users on their systems. They offer promos to get you to sign up and to try to keep you around.
You can take advantage of these offers and instead of being greedy, taking the money an run with it. This is the most common scenario:
The Sportsbooks offers a profit boost of 50%. Let’s say the Las Vegas Raiders are playing the Denver Broncos. The spread bets pay -110, but with the boost it pays +138 for your chosen side. There’s a max bet of $50 (this is common), so you want to max that out on your preferred side. Let’s say you’re going with the Raiders. Right now, you profit $68 if they win, and you’re risking $50.
But you could hedge, and put $55 on the Broncos. Now, you’re risking nothing. If the Broncos win, you win $105 to cover the cost of both your bets. But if the Raiders win, you win $13. So you’ve now made a 50/50 bet with the option for free money. You can hedge this as much or as a little as you like.
This is best for someone with a smaller bankroll who wants to rack up small wins. If you have a larger bankroll, this might not be worth it. But you could consider middling (see above) if the Raiders go up early. Then, you could win even more if the Raiders win by a small amount, won’t lose your whole bet if the Broncos end up winning, and will just have a little bit less profit if the Raiders dominate.
Let’s have fun winning
This guide is continuosly updated to include new sports betting strategies and tips.
My basic philosophy is to use strict “fact based” bankroll and fundamental gambling strategies, which can include sports prediction models. This keeps us from letting Vegas win the way it likes to win–getting you on tilt. Then, we turn the tables by using our tips, strategies and human insights to get an edge.
I hope you enjoy following the journey and we can win some money together.
Feel free to contact me if you have an suggestions or your own thoughts on sports betting.